The caution of investors in the markets of shares in the second quarter has visibly not paralysed financial analysts. While the CAC 40 index was stalled, the list quarterly consensus of recommendations prepared by Multex Global Estimates and searchable on was deeply modified. First finding: 5 values now enjoy a "consensus" Note to the purchase. They were only 3 since last summer. At the same time, there is more than a single value recommended mostly for the sale. It comes to Sodexho, whose lack of visibility on its prospects still scares the analysts. Publication, July 7, results nine month will be very popular. CM CIC Securities also has adopted a positive opinion doing the betting that this publication could terminate a period of significant underachievement of the title and a cycle of disappointing publications.
The catering group remains for the time being last of the classification, which includes this quarter than 39 values. Aventis is out of the CAC 40 due to the public supply of Sanofi-Synthelabo. The agreement finally reached in April between the two pharmaceutical laboratories allows a friendly merger and the creation of the third world group of the sector. Although that always in the last third of the standings, Sanofi was of 34th 28th place through including the lifting of uncertainty about the outcome of the operation and synergies to develop with Aventis.
But the main surprise of the quarter is the fracas in the forefront of the rankings. Vinci and BNP Paribas, first and second months in turn, are to be détrônés. They are respectively relegated from the 1st to 5th place and the 2nd to 4th. Not that the horizon is clouded for these two values which still enjoy a majority of Councils to purchase. But other titles of the CAC 40 now collect a consensus in the wider purchase in an economic context marked by a vigorous recovery in the United States that a gradual increase in interest rates will contain, a Chinese economy in boiling and a surge in prices of raw materials, oil in mind.
The 1st place of the classification is thus a cyclic value which is stalled in scholarship since the beginning of the year: Arcelor. The prospects for the first global steelmaker, valued around 20 euros per share by analysts, are still worn by the continued growth of demand, stocks finished lower in Europe and price increases. The outbreak of the price of steel two years should, however, coming to an end in the fall. Another uncertainty for Arcelor: the potential slowdown in demand of China metals.
The oil price boom has prompted analysts to raise their forecasts on crude prices. At the time, estimates of Total results were reassessed. Associated with strong growth in upstream and downstream, this allows the first CAC 40 capitalization to return to the forefront, from ninth to second place. "Total remains a value to excellent visibility, highlighted recently the team strategy of Société Générale." The announcement, at the General Assembly that the group will now provide interim dividend in the fall seems to us a very clear sign of a redistribution of the cash generated from the shareholder. "Schneider, for its part, continues to third place. The revision increased by annual growth forecasts for the Group on the publication of the figures in the first quarter confirmed the opinion of analysts.
Carrefour is behind
Among other notable upwelling of the quarter, LVMH won 8 seats in the 6th place, France Telecom 10 seats at the 8th rank, like Credit Agricole, now in the 16th place. Past the first doubts, analysts are increasingly confident on the smooth running of the merger with Credit Lyonnais and expect even on higher than expected synergies. In the depths of the rankings, 2 values out of the Red: AGF and EADS, which are more largely recommended the sale. A re-evaluation which may continue for the second time as more and more analysts are confident in the prospects of its Airbus subsidiary.
Demoted from the 4th to 15th place, Pernod Ricard is part of the big losers of the past quarter. Many analysts believe that the good news, namely the relaunch of the brand Chivas Regal and Martell as well as the fast focus on wines and spirits, are now integrated in the course. Crossroads, on the other hand, is sinking in the rankings. Losing 10 places the value occurs penultimate and thus lagging behind Casino, in 19th place. Its strategy of repositioning on the food, the proximity and the discount to better withstand the lifelessness of the hypermarkets in France. However, Carrefour is penalized by the lack of visibility on the recovery of its sales in this segment. To attempt to remedy this, the large distribution group went on the offensive with the launch of a loyalty card.
Analysts are waiting to see if the agreement has minima between industrialists and distributors on an average decrease in September of 2 of the price of consumer products and fresh brand industrial products will likely boost the dynamics of the hexagonal end of the year consumption and thus compensate for the impact on margins. Unless an offensive of the American Wal-Mart, which does not hide his ambitions in Europe, Vienna before shareholder value.