But the tension is to look for in figures The number 13 is the atomic number of aluminumA profusion of art celebrate the marriagesThis is why we are delighted to sell it from April 81 billion before taxes in the last quarterBut excluding transport the increase is 0We have become explorers of unknown lands50 with a fall at the global level of 74 to 57You call the State to rescue social security by relying on all decision support softwareIf transactions on the market of the real estate business in Ile-de-France have been slight increase in the third quarter over the same period of 2007, their volume has failed to offset declines in the first two quarters (see table). He represented 657.700 m2, thus marking an increase of 14 over the third quarter of 2007, and on demand placed on September 30, 2008 1.821.000 m2, this time down 10 from the first nine months of 2007. For the year 2008, total catches to lease prediction by Immostat is included in a range of 2.2 to 2.4 million square metres. A figure to match years 2005 and 2006, and thus considered Honourable. A reason of satisfaction for the real estate business advice when they compare this result with those of other European markets.
"Between realism and hope": so positioned Credit Foncier by analyzing changes in tertiary markets, leasing and investment. Jean-Michel Ciuch, Director of studies of this bank specialized in mortgage, supports its "realism" by stating that the operators could suggest a change of trend in prices and volume. "A number of them were evidence of carelessness." There was a clear divide between the real economy and investment markets, and a noticeable distance fundamentals since 2004, he says. Today, rising risk premiums imposed by financial institutions and purchasers is a fair return of the things that continues to this observer, is expected to clean up the markets. "With respect to the rental market, he said that was constituted, for three or four years,"an oversupply, produces an overestimate needs and speculation that hit the market for investment. " According to him, global offices in one year, proposed now offer marketing, would reach 4.5 million meters square in Ile-de-France.
Dynamism of large surfaces
Its estimate is considered to be alarmist and it is disputed by Benoît du Passage, President of Jones Lang LaSalle France, who "only verifiable sales is one of the immediate offer according to the definition established by the Director of studies of Immostat (1), which were to end September 2,514 million available square metres. Experts recall, moreover, that only 6 to 7 of the Council of Ile-de-France tertiary Park meet international standards and even less to those of sustainable development.
With regard to some new future supply, Immostat calculations the limit to 2 million by 2011, with 800,000-square-metre already préloués m2. In addition, all professionals, say economic uncertainty have caused a slowdown in housing starts. Looking at the Magnifier developments of market, all find a good maintenance of transactions greater than 5,000 m2, motivated by streamlining research, and all noticed a change in structure of the market, the central (QCA) business district, accustomed to leap at the top, is either today ex aequo with the defence to absorb each 13 of the demand placed. The defence was boosted by large transactions which that of Suez-GDF, which is installed on more than 70,000 m2. At the same time, the sector said "Péri-Défense", took third place on the podium with 12 of the volume and will be entering soon the Servier Group on nearly 55,000 m2. Paris has a lesser interest with a volume of transactions decreased by 30 between 2007 and 2008 while it grew by 10 in first Crown. The amount of the "premium", still displayed rents to 830 EUR/m2/year on prestigious avenues of the capital, has deterred, even accompanied by a few favours (franchise and work), have become conservative companies who prefer the outskirts, where the values of 300 to 350 euros/m2 are searched... And the less endangered account application and the upcoming new offer.
The dynamism of large surfaces reassures the place: they represented, in the third quarter, 334.500 m2 placed in 22 transactions, approximately half of the total rentals incurred in Ile-de-France. Jean-Luc Chalard, CEO of DTZ transaction activity, confirms: "the market for large surfaces remains supported by demand for large users who have a non-cyclic search economy and rationalization of their methods of work." This strong demand for businesses mask not rising rates of return, in the order of 1 to 1.5 in Paris and its suburbs.
Pierre Beckerich, President of Euragone Asset Management, said that "the four exceptional years the real estate sector comes to live are the fact of stakeholders looking in real estate known for its returns low and smooth operations fast and very efficient financial support". The absence of this type of stakeholders for leverage by borrowing will weigh on the market. But Pierre Beckerich said relish the idea of power again to implement real estate strategies in a context cleaned up and refocused on the intrinsic qualities of the market. The real issue, always outstanding course is the depth and duration of the financial crisis. Philippe Pelletier, counsel to the firm Lefèvre & Pelletier, is convinced that the financing tool a little forgotten that is leasing could in the current find relevant.
Housing starts staggered
The provisional overall amount of investment in offices, shops, business premises, warehouses for the first three quarters of 2008 amounted to EUR 6.32 billion when it reached 17.6 billion for the same period of 2007. The figure for the third quarter, EUR 1.5 billion, is worrying and the year will end with 9 billion investment in the region (13 billion for the entire France), compared to 21.5 billion year past (30.17 billion for the entire France).
"The promises of sale which were to be signed before the end of this year are deferred for three to six months, funding, regrets Jean-Luc Brohard, co-Chair of Cogedim companies." This will mean a shift in housing starts and a lack of quality in 2010.
Yet exist reasons to hope: "It is not, unlike the crisis of 1990s a market totally deadlocked and had that banks such as counterpart", positive Pierre Popesco, lawyer partner at Herbert Smith, head of the real estate Center. "Today many investors have cash and await opportunities." "Paris is a privileged site, insists Philippe Leigniel, Chairman of DTZ, with the biggest Park of European offices with the greatest diversity of users.
