Should preserve, reform, refounding or kill capitalism The current crisis proves that the success of the market economy were only a mirror on the alouettes That the replacement of capitalism of production by a financial capitalism has led us on the edge of an abyss
No one can know with certainty what the future brings us and the magnitude of the crisis is not yet known. At best, most countries will experience a significant decrease in production in 2009, and a significant increase in the rate of unemployment. It is impossible to see clearly below, although one may hope that the forecast of a recovery in 2010 are more than operations designed to boost morale.
If it cannot know the future, it can, however, know the past. And the recent past shows that the global economic system worked not so bad in the last twenty years; It must not rewrite the history of the twenty or thirty past years to make a slow march towards the abyss.
The World Bank published in 2008 of new statistics on poverty in the world. Between 1984 and 2005 (last year for which statistics are available), the proportion of the world's population lives on less than $ 1.25 a day fell from 47 to 25 (measures at constant dollar, the basis being the year 2005, with conversions between currencies correcting purely monetary effects and taking into account equivalencies in purchasing power). This decrease is very uneven. It is spectacular in China where the percentage increased from 69 to 16! In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa is doing less well with a percentage only from 56 to 51. The same phenomenon occurs if there is a higher bar of 2.50 $, with a fall at the global level of 74 to 57. In China, virtually the entire population was living below this threshold in 1984, while half of the population had an income above this amount in 2005. Yet again, Africa shows the limits of its development.
It is certainly not conceivable to be satisfied with a situation where half of the world's population lives on less than $ 2 per day and in which Africa is so hard to take off. This should not prevent us from celebrating the improvement of the standard of living in Southeast Asia this improvement is not a monetary mirage, but a reality: people eat better, dress better, better located, spend more time at school and have access to more leisure and culture.
Growth was also strong in rich countries. According to the OECD, the rate of growth of Western economies was of the order of 2 per year between 1985 and 2005 (measured in gross national product per capita) in the countries of the EU-15 one of the France (or the Germany) being 1.7 per year, the United States of 1.9 and 2.4 United Kingdom.
In a long-term perspective, these growth rates are spectacular: the experts agree that, as far as these numbers are meaningful, gross national product per capita across our planet, only not increased before 1,000 and 1,000 after JÚsus! It was until the beginning of the 20th century seen global growth rates begin to exceed the 1 per year.
It is true that, developed and developing countries, recent years have seen an increase in income inequality, due to the low increase of low wages, and that we face significant environmental problems. It is also true that the crisis has begun to provide its share of suffering. Must be conjecturels instruments that will help out. It is also important to establish new regulatory instruments that will limit the risks of a same crisis in the coming years. But these emergencies should not make us forget the successes of recent years. Reforming course, but it would be criminal not to try by all means preserve the fantastic machine out of populations of poverty that we were able to admire the last thirty years.